How can You manage risk if You are not certain? You can’t. But You can focus on uncertainty [1].

Developed further [2], ” in dynamic, uncertain environments, agents must be able to effectively manage their plans during execution” and “learning cannot be planned for in advance”.  A table summarizes the three possible approaches

“Unk” for unknown

“The right combination of instructionism, learning, and selectionism depends on the urgency of the project[…]Precise rules of when to use which approach are currently unknown. ”

[1] Transforming project risk management into project uncertainty management, Ward and Chapman in the International Journal of Project Management
Volume 21, Issue 2, February 2003
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(01)00080-1

[2] On Uncertainty, Ambiguity, and Complexity in Project Management
Michael T. Pich, Christoph H. Loch, Arnoud De Meyer https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.48.8.1008.163