Prediction of project outcome: The application of statistical methods to earned value management and earned schedule performance indexes https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2008.02.009

A widely cited paper outlining an improved Earned Value Management prediction of outcome. Heavy on math, but a good start is to play with the excel file provided by the researchers online http://www.earnedschedule.com/Calculator.shtml

And there’s even a video.

youtube.com/watch?v=Z98FRgyKbNM